Dixie’s ultimate Melbourne Cup preview

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November 3, 2015 by dixwah

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Yep, I’m back. Bigger and better than last year. Sooooo close. And to all you keyboard warriors, you…you so called friends and naysayers, listen in. There’s no stopping me this year. The algorithm has done the sums, and it’s time. Trust the system, as all losing punters like me say far too often.

In going through the runners for today’s Melbourne Cup, I was struck by the dominance of international horses, or the artist formerly known as international horses (ie. subsequently bought to race in Australia) and also the arrogance of their names. I mean, who the fuck calls their horse The United States? If there’s any karma in this world, with what they did to that poor guy Jarryd Hayne this week, that country/horse will run stone…bottomless…last.

In my standard horse-by-horse analysis (useful for office sweeps, the mid-morning run to the TAB, or simply to ridicule me for being incorrect like last year), I also became very aware of the amount of horses where a cynical tipster can swap/remove/insert a ‘no’ to their name. To use a sort-of-horse reference, when it comes to analysis gags, I’m a bit of a one-trick pony, so you’ll see a recurring theme here.

The winner

To steal the name of another horse, 'Trust in a Gust'...

To steal the name of another horse, ‘Trust in a Gust’…

You can have your favourites you lot. But me, I’m trusting the gust. That’s right, numero 24, GUST OF WIND. With such a half-arsed research effort, I haven’t looked it up, but I really doubt there’s been many 24s to bring home the bacon. But rules are made to be broken etc.

Gust of Wind’s preparation has been ok, finishing close-up in the traditional lead ups. 4th in the Caulfield Cup. 2.5 lengths from winning in the Turnbull. 2 lengths away in the Makybe Diva.

But let’s go back to its maiden at Scone in February this year. Watch this (nice ride Jay) and tell me there’s not something doing.

More? Three starts later, that horse, yep, Gust of Wind, won the Group One ATC Oaks, trouncing Winx by 2.5 lengths.

Last week Winx smashed a world-class Cox Plate field in race record time.

Back Gust of Wind, get a helicopter home from work for a laugh and thank me tomorrow. Yep, should be about 50/1.

Here’s a summary of the 23 gallopers making up the numbers:

  1. Snow Sky – never heard of him. No deal
  2. Criterion – good horse, has a few hotels named after him. Won’t win
  3. Fame Game – very short priced favourite. Scared? Me? Yes
  4. Our Ivanhoe – Our Ivan-no (pats himself on the back)
  5. Big Orange – English. Strangely named for a brown horse with yellow silks. Obviously owned by idiots
  6. Hartnell – Hart-no (double pat)
  7. Hokko Brave – doesn’t even deserve a hok-no. Just no.
  8. Max Dynamite – Max Dyna-shite. Who are these overseas idiots and why do they make it so easy to slag the name of their horses?
  9. Red Cadeaux – are they taking the piss? Have you ever seen so many horses that rhyme with no? Maybe
  10. Trip to Paris – Nice second in the Caulfield Cup. Shane’s tipped it. He’s very competitive. So I’ll leave it
  11. Whotshotthebarman – A common question with the poor service at Flemington (so I’m paying for a schooner and you’re giving me a bottle, poured into a glass?), outside chance
  12. Sky Hunter – might be good. I wouldn’t know
  13. The Offer – Won the Bendigo Cup last week. Bendi-no (yep, found a way)
  14. Grand Marshal – Won the Sydney Cup earlier this year. Had its win, move over
  15. Preferment – Very good horse, suspect at the distance. Prefergustofwind
  16. Quest for More – Second last in the Geelong Cup. Apparently ‘had excuses’. Righto…
  17. Almoonqith – Here we go. Won the Geelong Cup, looks good. Chance for 2nd
  18. Kingfisher – Horse named after a beer? See The United States reference above. Seriously people (and yes I did name my horse after a Japanese meal – but it was CLEVER!)
  19. Prince of Penzance – now we’re getting horses named a degree away from old musicals. The Prince probably isn’t the worse. The best? Nope
  20. Bondi Beach – ‘Hi I’m Bondi Beach. Nice to meet you, The United States.’ Who are these idiots?
  21. Sertorius – Ser-bore-ius (good one)
  22. The United States – Imagine. ‘And The United States wins Australia’s great race, the Melbourne Cup.’ Vom…
  23. Excess Knowledge – One more? More like Excess No-ledge
  24. Gust of Wind – back the winner, get that extension, buy those golf clubs, take that holiday. All of them.

So there it is people. Have fun at work. Throw your winner down in the FB comments and I may even give you a shout out (unless its the favourite, and I will likely ridicule you if you get it wrong). As Bilko says, sometimes longshots pay off big (see clip below).

http://www.tubechop.com/watch/7108353

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